In the first half of this year, the soft foam polyether market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with the overall price center sinking. However, due to the tight supply of raw material EPDM in March and a strong rise in prices, the soft foam market continued to rise, with prices reaching 11300 yuan/ton in the first half of the year, exceeding expectations. From January to June 2026, the average price of soft foam polyether in the East China market was 9898.79 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.08% compared to the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the low market price in early January was 8900 yuan, and the price difference between the high and low end was 2600 yuan/ton, gradually reducing market volatility.

The downward trend of the market price center is mainly caused by the drag of the downward trend of raw material prices, as well as the result of the game between relatively abundant market supply and “strong expectations and weak reality” demand. In the first half of 2023, the soft bubble market can be roughly divided into a low impact high stage and a shock back stage.
From January to early March, price fluctuations rose
1. The raw material EPDM continues to soar. During the Spring Festival, the delivery of raw materials for environmental protection was smooth, and prices fluctuated and increased. In early March, due to the maintenance of raw materials such as the first phase of Huanbing Zhenhai and Binhua, supply was tight, and prices rose strongly, driving the soft foam market to continue rising. In the first half of the year, prices rose.
2. The impact of social factors is gradually weakening, and the market has good expectations for the recovery of the demand side. Sellers are willing to support prices, but the market is bearish around the Spring Festival, and it is difficult to find low-priced supply in the market after the holiday. At this stage, downstream demand is low, maintaining rigid demand for procurement, especially the return to the market during the Spring Festival, dragging down the market mentality.
From mid March to June, price fluctuations decreased and market fluctuations gradually narrowed
1. The new production capacity of raw material EPDM has been continuously put into the market, and the mentality of the industry is bearish. In the second quarter, it gradually affected the supply of EPDM in the market, causing the price of EPDM to decline and driving the price of soft foam polyether market to decline;
2. Downstream demand recovered lower than expected in March, and downstream order growth was limited in April. Starting from May, it has gradually entered the traditional off-season, dragging down downstream procurement mentality. The polyether market is relatively abundant in supply, and the market supply and demand continue to compete, resulting in a continuous decline in prices. Most downstream warehouses are replenished as needed. When the price rebounds from a low point, it will lead to centralized procurement in downstream demand, but it will last for half a day to a day. At the beginning of May of this stage, due to the shortage of raw material EPDM supply and price increase, the soft foam polyether market increased by about 600 yuan/ton, while the polyether market mostly showed price fluctuations, with prices passively following the trend.
At present, polyether polyols are still in the period of capacity expansion. As of the first half of the year, the annual production capacity of polyether polyols in China has expanded to 7.53 million tons. The factory maintains a production based on sales strategy, with large factories generally operating well, while small and medium-sized factories are not ideal. The industry’s operating level is slightly higher than 50%. Compared to demand, the supply of soft foam polyether market has always been relatively abundant. From the perspective of downstream demand, as the influence of social factors gradually subsides, industry insiders are optimistic about the demand in 2023, but the recovery of industrial product demand in the first half of the year is not as expected. In the first half of the year, the main downstream sponge industry had low inventory before the Spring Festival, and the procurement volume after the Spring Festival was lower than expected. On demand inventory from March to April, and traditional off-season from May to June. The recovery of the sponge industry in the first half of the year was much lower than expected, dragging down the purchasing mentality. Currently, with the rise and fall of the soft bubble market, most downstream purchases have shifted to rigid procurement, with a procurement cycle of one to two weeks and a procurement time of half a day to one day. The changes in downstream procurement cycles have also to some extent affected the current fluctuations in polyether prices.

In the second half of the year, the soft foam polyether market may experience a slight decline and prices may return
In the fourth quarter, the market center of gravity may once again experience slight weakness, as the market fluctuates in the supply-demand game with the environmental impact of raw materials.
1. At the end of the raw material ring C, some new production capacity of ring C has gradually been put into the market. There are still new production capacity to be released in the third quarter. It is expected that the supply of raw material EPDM will continue to show an upward trend in the third quarter, and the competition pattern will become increasingly fierce. There may still be a slight downward trend in the market, and soft foam polyether may hit a small bottom along the way; At the same time, the increase in the supply of raw material EPDM may affect the range of price fluctuations. It is expected that the rise and fall of the soft bubble market will remain within 200-1000 yuan/ton;
2. The market supply of soft foam polyether may still maintain a relatively sufficient demand state. In the second half of the year, major factories in Shandong and southern China have maintenance plans or local periods of tight supply in the polyether market, which can provide favorable support for the mentality of operators or drive a slight increase in the market. The circulation of goods between regions may be expected to strengthen;
3. In terms of demand, starting from the third quarter, downstream markets are gradually moving out of the traditional off-season, and new orders are expected to gradually increase. The trading activity and sustainability of the polyether market are expected to gradually improve. According to industry inertia, most downstream companies purchase raw materials in advance during the peak season when prices are suitable in the third quarter. Market transactions in the third quarter are expected to improve compared to the second quarter;
4. From the seasonal analysis of soft foam polyether, in the past decade, the soft foam market has experienced a significant increase from July to October, especially in September. As the market gradually enters the traditional “golden nine silver ten” demand peak season, it is expected that market transactions will continue to improve. In the fourth quarter, the automotive and sponge industries are expected to see an increase in order growth, forming support on the demand side. With the continuous increase in the completed area of real estate and the production of the automotive industry, it may to some extent drive the market demand for soft foam polyether.

Based on the above analysis, it is expected that the soft foam polyether market will gradually rebound after reaching a bottom in the second half of the year, but due to seasonal factors, there will be a trend of correction at the end of the year. In addition, the upper limit of the early market rebound will not be very high, and the mainstream price range may be between 9400-10500 yuan/ton. According to seasonal patterns, the high point in the second half of the year is likely to appear in September and October, while the low point may appear in July and December.